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Up to Low likelihood
Properties in M4 4EH sit in the Environment Agency's Low flood-likelihood band (worst property). The band is the worst found in the postcode — it describes the land around properties (defence-adjusted, rivers & sea), not any single address, and not today's conditions.
| Likelihood band | Annual chance | Properties | Of which homes |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | greater than 3.3% | 0 | 0 |
| Medium | 1% – 3.3% | 0 | 0 |
| Low | 0.1% – 1% | 77 | 77 |
| Very low | below 0.1% | 0 | 0 |
Over a 25-year mortgage, a property in a low-likelihood area has a 2–22% chance of flooding at least once.
M4 4EH gets about 888 mm of rain a year on average (wettest month December, 94 mm; driest April, 54 mm). That is 24% drier than the UK as a whole, which averages 1,163 mm a year.
A thirty-year average for the surrounding area, not a measurement at this address and not a flood risk on its own: a dry area floods when a storm sits over it, and a wet one may drain away perfectly well. Source: Met Office HadUK-Grid 1991–2020 (5 km grid), 2.4 km away. Average rainfall: HadUK-Grid v1.3.2, Met Office. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The ground here sits at about 31 m above sea level and falls 30 m across the surrounding 800 m. Surface water reaching this point runs off ground lying to the east-south-east, 27.2 m higher.
The nearest watercourse on the river map is the River Irk, about 60 m from the centre of M4 4EH. It flows into the River Irwell about 550 m downstream.
A gauge downstream shows water that has already passed this point; one upstream sees it first. Distances along the river are from the point on the River Irk nearest the centre of M4 4EH. From Ordnance Survey’s river map (OS Open Rivers), which leaves out small streams, ditches and culverts, so a nearer one may exist. This describes where water goes on the map; it says nothing about flooding at any address. Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database rights 2026.
Because properties in the low likelihood band; 6 recorded flood outlines mapped nearby; 311 official warnings since 2006.
The map above shows the real EA rivers & sea likelihood cells around M4 4EH. The small panels are illustrative previews of the report's per-layer map views — the full report draws each layer for real, plus recorded extents, defences and a building picker on an interactive map.
Warnings cover flood areas, not individual addresses.
| Date | Mapped flood extent | Approx. distance |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | Collyhurst Road, | ~0.8 km |
| Dec 2015 | Lower Broughton | ~1.5 km |
| Dec 2015 | Cheetham Hill | ~0.7 km |
| Jan 2008 | EA01313_21 January 2008_Irwell_Manchester | ~1.3 km |
| Sep 1946 | IRWE | ~1.3 km |
| Nov 1866 | IRWE | ~1.7 km |
These are extents the Environment Agency has mapped, not a list of every flood. Records, not floods: no outline on the record is not evidence a place has not flooded. The full report tests whether any extent covered the exact spot.
Christoph (2021, 10 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · Ciara (2020, 6 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · Franklin (2022, 6 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · Babet (2023, 4 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here
| Gauge | River | Distance | Typical high | Highest on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London Road | River Medlock | 1.9 km | 1.40 m | 1.80 m |
| Manchester Racecourse | River Irwell | 2.3 km | 3.00 m | 5.67 m |
| Littleton Road River | River Irwell | 3.9 km | 4.60 m | 4.98 m |
| Chestnut Road | Worsley Brook | 9.0 km | 1.64 m | 2.14 m |
Live levels, predictions and rain-response behaviour are on each gauge's page and in the property report.
| Overflow | Discharges into | Distance | Spills | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspin Lane Cso 281cj | River Irk | 0.1 km | 33 (2024) | 19 |
| Verdon Street/scotland Cso | River Irk | 0.1 km | 2 (2024) | 0 |
| Miller Street/corporation St Cso | River Irk | 0.2 km | 28 (2024) | 15 |
| Bromley Street Cso 281mt | River Irk | 0.4 km | 5 (2024) | 0 |
Official annual EDM figures — a water-quality signal for local watercourses, not a property flood-risk factor.
7 mapped flood-defence assets within 500 m — nearest ~48 m (natural high ground, wall). Defences reduce risk, never remove it.
The interactive flood-risk map with a building picker (your exact house, not the postcode), the 2050s climate view, surface-water and planning flood zones at your building, exact recorded-flood distances, year-by-year warning charts, watercourses including culverted streams, an insurance outlook with the Flood Re rules, and a printable document with every dataset receipt — start with the free preview, unlock for £19.
At-risk postcodes near M4 4EH — all in the M4 district.
© Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. All rights reserved. Some features of this map are based on digital spatial data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, © NERC (CEH). © Crown Copyright and Database Rights 2025 OS AC0000807064. This product is produced in part from PAF® and Multiple Residence Data, the copyright in which is owned by Royal Mail Group Limited and/or Royal Mail Group plc. All rights reserved. Licence number AC0000807064. Recorded Flood Outlines and warning history © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. Storm-overflow figures: EA Event Duration Monitoring (England); live overflow status © the water companies, incl. Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water and Scottish Water. Flood defences © Environment Agency (OGL v3). This page summarises public area-level data — it is not a flood-risk survey and not a substitute for the official GOV.UK service. All data sources & licences. More postcodes: the M4 district.