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Up to High likelihood
Properties in CA12 4SU sit in the Environment Agency's High flood-likelihood band (worst property). The band is the worst found in the postcode — it describes the land around properties (defence-adjusted, rivers & sea), not any single address, and not today's conditions.
| Likelihood band | Annual chance | Properties | Of which homes |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | greater than 3.3% | 1 | 0 |
| Medium | 1% – 3.3% | 0 | 0 |
| Low | 0.1% – 1% | 1 | 0 |
| Very low | below 0.1% | 0 | 0 |
Over a 25-year mortgage, a property in a high-likelihood area has at least a 57% chance of flooding at least once.
CA12 4SU gets about 1,973 mm of rain a year on average (wettest month December, 240 mm; driest May, 104 mm). That is 70% wetter than the UK as a whole, which averages 1,163 mm a year.
A thirty-year average for the surrounding area, not a measurement at this address and not a flood risk on its own: a dry area floods when a storm sits over it, and a wet one may drain away perfectly well. Source: Met Office HadUK-Grid 1991–2020 (5 km grid), 1.7 km away. Average rainfall: HadUK-Grid v1.3.2, Met Office. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The ground here sits at about 175 m above sea level and falls 121 m across the surrounding 800 m. Surface water reaching this point runs off ground lying to the north-north-west, 7.2 m higher.
The nearest watercourse on the river map is Gategill Beck, about 20 m from the centre of CA12 4SU. It flows into the River Glenderamackin about 740 m downstream.
A gauge downstream shows water that has already passed this point; one upstream sees it first. Distances along the river are from the point on Gategill Beck nearest the centre of CA12 4SU. From Ordnance Survey’s river map (OS Open Rivers), which leaves out small streams, ditches and culverts, so a nearer one may exist. This describes where water goes on the map; it says nothing about flooding at any address. Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database rights 2026.
Because properties in the high likelihood band; 6 recorded flood outlines mapped nearby; 565 official warnings since 2006.
The map above shows the real EA rivers & sea likelihood cells around CA12 4SU. The small panels are illustrative previews of the report's per-layer map views — the full report draws each layer for real, plus recorded extents, defences and a building picker on an interactive map.
Warnings cover flood areas, not individual addresses.
| Date | Mapped flood extent | Approx. distance |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2021 | Keswick Oct 2021 | ~7.2 km |
| Feb 2020 | Storm Ciara 09_02_2020 | ~10.2 km |
| Feb 2020 | Storm Ciara Threlkeld 09_02_2020 | ~0.8 km |
| Dec 2015 | Threlkeld 05_12_2015 | ~0.7 km |
| Feb 2002 | Flooding 01_02_2002 | ~25.1 km |
| Oct 2000 | Flooding 28_10_2000 | ~12.3 km |
These are extents the Environment Agency has mapped, not a list of every flood. Records, not floods: no outline on the record is not evidence a place has not flooded. The full report tests whether any extent covered the exact spot.
Desmond (2015, 20 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · 2013-14 UK winter floods (2013, 17 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · Ciara (2020, 5 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here · Callum (2018, 5 warnings nearby) ▶ replay it here
| Gauge | River | Distance | Typical high | Highest on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threlkeld | River Glenderamackin | 1.0 km | 2.00 m | 2.57 m |
| Riddings Wood | River Greta | 1.6 km | 2.60 m | 3.29 m |
| Thirlmere | St Johns Beck | 6.4 km | 1.00 m | 3.25 m |
| Greta Bridge | River Greta | 6.6 km | 2.70 m | 5.35 m |
Live levels, predictions and rain-response behaviour are on each gauge's page and in the property report.
| Overflow | Discharges into | Distance | Spills | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gategill Beck M/h Cso | Gategill Beck | 0.5 km | 41 (2024) | 70 |
| Threlkeld Ps | River Glenderamackin | 1.4 km | 78 (2024) | 288 |
Official annual EDM figures — a water-quality signal for local watercourses, not a property flood-risk factor.
8 mapped flood-defence assets within 500 m — nearest ~79 m (wall, embankment, engineered high ground). Defences reduce risk, never remove it.
The interactive flood-risk map with a building picker (your exact house, not the postcode), the 2050s climate view, surface-water and planning flood zones at your building, exact recorded-flood distances, year-by-year warning charts, watercourses including culverted streams, an insurance outlook with the Flood Re rules, and a printable document with every dataset receipt — start with the free preview, unlock for £19.
At-risk postcodes near CA12 4SU — all in the CA12 district.
© Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. All rights reserved. Some features of this map are based on digital spatial data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, © NERC (CEH). © Crown Copyright and Database Rights 2025 OS AC0000807064. This product is produced in part from PAF® and Multiple Residence Data, the copyright in which is owned by Royal Mail Group Limited and/or Royal Mail Group plc. All rights reserved. Licence number AC0000807064. Recorded Flood Outlines and warning history © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. Storm-overflow figures: EA Event Duration Monitoring (England); live overflow status © the water companies, incl. Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water and Scottish Water. Flood defences © Environment Agency (OGL v3). This page summarises public area-level data — it is not a flood-risk survey and not a substitute for the official GOV.UK service. All data sources & licences. More postcodes: the CA12 district.