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Carlisle, Cumberland
Up to Low likelihood
Properties in CA1 2AR sit in the Environment Agency's Low flood-likelihood band (worst property). The band is the worst found in the postcode — it describes the land around properties (defence-adjusted, rivers & sea), not any single address, and not today's conditions.
| Likelihood band | Annual chance | Properties | Of which homes |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | greater than 3.3% | 0 | 0 |
| Medium | 1% – 3.3% | 0 | 0 |
| Low | 0.1% – 1% | 4 | 3 |
| Very low | below 0.1% | 0 | 0 |
Over a 25-year mortgage, a property in a low-likelihood area has a 2–22% chance of flooding at least once.
The ground here sits at about 15 m above sea level and falls 8 m across the surrounding 800 m. Surface water reaching this point runs off ground lying to the south-west, 1.8 m higher.
Because properties in the low likelihood band; 6 recorded floods nearby; 439 official warnings since 2006.
The map above shows the real EA rivers & sea likelihood cells around CA1 2AR. The small panels are illustrative previews of the report's per-layer map views — the full report draws each layer for real, plus recorded extents, defences and a building picker on an interactive map.
Warnings cover flood areas, not individual addresses.
| Date | Recorded flood | Approx. distance |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Carlisle Storm Dennis 15-02-20 | ~0.9 km |
| Feb 2020 | Storm Ciara 09_02_2020 | ~38.5 km |
| Feb 2020 | Carlisle Storm Ciara 09-02-2020 | ~0.6 km |
| Dec 2015 | Carlisle (including Crosby-on-Eden) 05_12_2015 | ~1.6 km |
| Jan 2005 | 2005 Carlisle Event | ~0.9 km |
| Jan 2005 | Carlisle (drainage) 08_01_2005 | ~1.2 km |
EA Recorded Flood Outlines — absence of a record never proves a place has not flooded. The full report tests whether any extent covered the exact spot.
Desmond (2015, 43 warnings nearby) · 2013-14 UK winter floods (2013, 17 warnings nearby) · Ciara (2020, 13 warnings nearby) · Isha (2024, 7 warnings nearby)
| Gauge | River | Distance | Typical high | Highest on record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botcherby Bridge, Carlisle | River Petteril | 0.5 km | 1.40 m | 4.36 m |
| Sands Centre, Carlisle | River Eden | 1.1 km | 2.50 m | 7.91 m |
| Skew Bridge | River Caldew | 1.3 km | 3.00 m | 5.34 m |
| Harraby Green Business Park | River Petteril | 1.5 km | 1.75 m | 3.01 m |
Live levels, predictions and rain-response behaviour are on each gauge's page and in the property report.
| Overflow | Discharges into | Distance | Spills | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Park Cso | River Petteril | 0.6 km | 10 (2024) | 23 |
| Warick Roadwwnw Ps | River Petteril | 0.7 km | 18 (2024) | 9 |
| Petteril Railway Bridge Sso | River Petteril | 0.7 km | 9 (2024) | 22 |
| Lime Street Sps | River Caldew | 1.3 km | 0 (2024) | 0 |
Official annual EDM figures — a water-quality signal for local watercourses, not a property flood-risk factor.
13 mapped flood-defence assets within 500 m — nearest ~254 m (natural high ground, embankment, wall). Defences reduce risk, never remove it.
The interactive flood-risk map with a building picker (your exact house, not the postcode), the 2050s climate view, surface-water and planning flood zones at your building, exact recorded-flood distances, year-by-year warning charts, watercourses including culverted streams, an insurance outlook with the Flood Re rules, and a printable document with every dataset receipt — start with the free preview, unlock for £19.
At-risk postcodes near CA1 2AR — all in the CA1 district.
© Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. All rights reserved. Some features of this map are based on digital spatial data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, © NERC (CEH). © Crown Copyright and Database Rights 2025 OS AC0000807064. This product is produced in part from PAF® and Multiple Residence Data, the copyright in which is owned by Royal Mail Group Limited and/or Royal Mail Group plc. All rights reserved. Licence number AC0000807064. Place names: Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database rights 2026. Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database right 2026. Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Recorded Flood Outlines and warning history © Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2025. Storm-overflow figures: EA Event Duration Monitoring. Flood defences © Environment Agency (OGL v3). This page summarises public area-level data — it is not a flood-risk survey and not a substitute for the official GOV.UK service. All data sources & licences. More postcodes: the CA1 district.